Postseason possibilities

As of this writing, the West Raleigh standings haven't yet been updated (they should reflect all teams having played 13 games). But the Bulls picked up a come-from-behind win over the Riverdogs tonight, giving them a one-game lead on the Mudcats with one game to play. However, the possibility of earning the seventh seed isn't quite over yet. Here's what we know with one game to play, starting with the Mudcat possibilities and then expanding out to take a look at the league at large.

The Mudcats will have either the seventh seed or the eighth seed. If the Mudcats earn the seventh seed, they will play Sunday (10/24) at 2 p.m., Thursday (10/28) at 5:30 p.m., and Saturday (10/30) at 9:30 a.m. If the Mudcats earn the eighth seed, they will play Sunday (10/24) at noon, Friday (10/29) at 5:30 p.m., and Saturday (10/30) at 1:30 p.m. Barring another bracket change, those are the only possible tournament game times, which means the Mudcats can't play on Tuesday (10/26) or Wednesday (10/27).

If the Bulls defeat the Mudcats on Saturday, the Bulls will be the seventh seed and the Mudcats will be the eighth seed.

If the Mudcats defeat the Bulls on Saturday...it will get complicated. The two teams will be tied, with identical 4-10 records. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head competition. The two teams split. The next tiebreaker is the record against the highest-finishing teams in the league. The best win for the Bulls is against the Thunder. The best win for the Mudcats is against the Lookouts. That means if the Thunder finishes higher than the Lookouts, the Bulls get the seventh seed. If the Lookouts finish higher than the Thunder, the Mudcats get the seventh seed.

The Thunder play the Bats on Saturday at 9:30 a.m. If the Thunder win that game, there is no mathematical way the Lookouts can catch them. That means the Mudcats get the eighth seed no matter what happens in the game against the Bulls on Saturday. But if the Bats beat the Thunder and the Mudcats beat the Bulls, attention will turn to the 3:30 Lookouts-Riverdogs matchup. If the Lookouts win that game, they finish higher than the Thunder and the Mudcats earn the seventh seed. If the Lookouts lose, they finish below the Thunder and the Mudcats earn the eighth seed.

So, to make it a little simpler:

Necessary outcomes in Saturday's games for the Mudcats to earn the seventh seed: Bats beat Thunder, Mudcats beat Bulls, Lookouts beat Riverdogs.

Any combination OTHER than all three of those outcomes: Mudcats earn the eighth seed.

Here's what we know about the rest of the league:

#1 seed: Scrappers
#2 seed: Bees
#3 seed: Thunder-Bats winner
#4 seed: Thunder-Bats loser or Lookouts
#5 seed: Thunder-Bats loser or Lookouts
#6 seed: Riverdogs
#7 seed: Bulls/Mudcats
#8 seed: Bulls/Mudcats